Match Is Still a Long-Term Catch

It is possible that the days of blockbuster growth in online dating are behind us. Evercore ISI estimates 60% of U.S. singles who are actively looking for a relationship already use an online dating service, with an even higher percentage of those singles using them in the U.K. They are hardly the only way to meet people and some will never use them.

Tinder’s recent metrics validate that narrative. The

Match

MTCH 2.37%

-owned app—the largest dating app in the world—is now in 190 countries and has nearly single-handedly vanquished the negative stereotype once associated with meeting someone romantically online. For a time, finding love on Tinder wasn’t just normal but fun. These days, though, the novelty of the superficial “swipe” seems to have worn off for many singles.

On average, Tinder’s user revenue more than doubled annually from 2015 to 2019. But it slowed significantly throughout the pandemic. Wall Street is forecasting just 8% growth this year. That deceleration, along with broader guidance for “muted” top-line growth in the second half of the year, sent Match’s shares down 17% the day after last week’s second-quarter report. Year-to-date, Match’s shares have lost half their value. What was once an incredible growth play in dating, Match’s largest asset has now become very much a “show me story.”

On Wednesday competitor

Bumble

lowered its second-half revenue guidance slightly based on negative foreign exchange and macroeconomic pressures. While revenue for its namesake app grew solidly in the second quarter, Badoo app and other paying users fell nearly 25% in the period. That is actually encouraging news for Match because it suggests its issues are idiosyncratic rather than systemic.

Overall, consumers’ appetite for dating apps still appears to be high. Evercore ISI’s latest dating survey published in May showed 70% of surveyed users expect their usage of dating apps to stay the same or increase, even in the event of a recession. Including Tinder, Match operates 14 different brands. Relationship app Hinge, its most comparable app to the Bumble app, is still humming: Match continues to target $300 million in revenue for Hinge this year, up about 50% from a year earlier.

A more mature company than Bumble, Match itself is in the process of being remade with a heavier emphasis on entertainment and social discovery. New Chief Executive Officer

Bernard Kim,

who joined May 31, hails from Zynga and

Electronic Arts.

That underlines plans to add more entertainment pizazz, including Metaverse offerings, to the dating and social discovery experience, though Mr. Kim doesn’t seem to be in any particular rush.

Meanwhile, Match can do more with what it already has. It just entered the “ultra premium” dating market via its acquisition of The League. It will be accelerating Hinge’s international expansion and adding a premium subscription tier to the app—a strategy that was highly successful for Bumble. And for the more cost-conscious consumer, it will start testing shorter-term subscription packages on Tinder. YipitData shows Tinder downloads worldwide were down just 1% in June versus three years prior, suggesting there is still a lot of interest; Match just has to find new ways to monetize it.

Love for Match this year has been unrequited. But as

Morgan Stanley’s

Lauren Schenk put it, “time heals all wounds” for the patient investor.

Write to Laura Forman at laura.forman@wsj.com